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The Real Estate Reality Show

At GowerCrowd, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and opportunities they can invest in. You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype. Real estate investing for passive (accredited) investors is turning messy with vast swathes of loan maturities approaching which is going to send many sponsors into default causing their investors to lose capital. While this is nothing to be celebrated, it will also bring in a period of wealth transfer and opportunistic investments. We’re here to guide you by looking at the harsh realities of real estate investing, examining the risks and the rewards in conversations with some of the world’s top experts so you can make informed decisions. You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn. Each week we add new episodes that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in commercial real estate investing with a focus on discounted distressed real estate and the associated market dynamics. We provide interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's real estate industry, how the economy impacts returns, how to access and invest in distressed real estate deals, and how to protect your capital by mitigating downside risks. There’s no doubt that it is a very challenging time right now for the average investor. With the impact of COVID still being felt and the era of record low interest rates behind us, commercial real estate is experiencing severe headwinds. This creates financial distress for many CRE owners who did not include contingencies in their original business plans and who now face dramatically increased debt costs, increased construction and maintenance costs due to inflation, and reduced revenues from rents as the economy slows down. Is the commercial real estate world on the cusp of a major correction? Is it 2007 or 1989 all over again? Will passive investors (limited partners) who have invested in syndications (through crowdfunding or otherwise) see losses they had not predicted? How can you access discounted real estate opportunities this time around that were only available to a select few during prior downturns? Let us help you prepare your real estate portfolio no matter what the future holds, whether it be business as usual for real estate investors or a period of wealth transfer where those less prudent during the good times, lose their assets to those who have sat on the sidelines, patiently waiting for a correction. Be among the first to know of discounted investment opportunities as the market cycle plays out by subscribing to the GowerCrowd newsletter at https://gowercrowd.com/subscribe Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1 Follow Adam on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠ https://twitter.com/GowerCrowd Join the conversation on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gowercrowd/ Follow us on Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠ https://www.facebook.com/GowerCrowd/ *** IMPORTANT NOTICE: This audio/video content is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a recommendation, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Any investment information contained herein is strictly for educational purposes and GowerCrowd makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy of such information and accepts no liability therefor. Real estate syndication investment opportunities are speculative and involve substantial risk. You should not invest unless you can sustain the risk of loss of capital, including the risk of total loss of capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. GowerCrowd is not a registered broker-dealer, investment adviser or crowdfunding portal. We recommend that you consult with a financial advisor, attorney, accountant, and any other professional that can help you to understand and assess the risks associated with any investment opportunity. Unless otherwise indicated, all images, content, designs, and recordings © 2023 GowerCrowd. All rights reserved.
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Now displaying: Page 2
Aug 22, 2023

Today’s show is with guest Henry Lorber, distressed real estate debt expert and one of the only people you will likely come across whose experience goes back so far he remembers the REIT downturn of the 1970’s!

I contacted Henry because he was quoted as saying that ‘Crowdfunding for real estate is a disaster waiting to happen’ in a recent Real Deal article (see link at the bottom of the page) and, rising to the bait, I figured such a statement could not go unchallenged.

Apart from our discussion on that topic (Henry’s approach comes from his classic institutional perspective) I discovered that he has deep experience in commercial real estate banking and finance going back even before my time (the early middle ages).

What you’ll learn today is in what ways ‘crowdfunding’, as a term used to describe ‘general solicitation’ or online syndication in general, can lead to misinterpretation of this industry. Plus you’ll also hear insights firsthand from someone who has lived through more real estate downturns than anyone else you likely know.

**

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here. 

Aug 15, 2023

Everything's sellable. In today’s market, it's just a question whether seller expectations are reasonable.

My guest today, Jon Winick, CEO of Clark Street Capital a bank advisory and asset disposition firm specializing in loan sales, both performing and non-performing, explains how elevated interest rates are posing challenges for banks on how their loan portfolios are sold.

As defaults rise and a potential banking crisis looms, a hurdle the industry faces is in balancing appraised values that are backward looking (mandatory for banks per regulations), with today’s reality – especially as buyers are forward looking in both their underwriting and expectations.

Lenders are treading with caution, meticulously analyzing their portfolios while fully aware of the growing cloud over the commercial real estate markets, particularly office and, increasingly, multifamily.

But it's not all about cautionary tales; it's also about opportunities and understanding the market's pulse. In today’s conversation, Jon emphasizes the essence of realism in the loan sales market, especially when outdated appraisals come into play.

Despite these and other frictional hurdles in finding price equilibrium while balancing buyer and seller expectations, opportunities beckon for investors eyeing real estate through discounted loan purchases.

Join us for a comprehensive look at how banks are navigating the rising interest rate environment as their CRE portfolios tank in value, and learn how to identify opportunity through the markets’ current fog of uncertainty.

**

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here. 

Aug 4, 2023

Tune in to hear updates and commentary from Adam Gower Ph.D., GowerCrowd, and David Saxe, Calvera Partners, about the major news stories this past week (week ending August 4, 2023) in the commercial real estate industry:

Stories we cover today:

Aug 1, 2023

The real estate market is witnessing a shift where many stakeholders are grappling with the changing dynamics. One of the significant concerns is the valuation of properties. Many banks are hesitant to offload their real estate collateralized non-performing loans (NPL) due to uncertainties in their values. This uncertainty is causing a delay in the stabilization of the bid-ask spread, with some predicting stabilization won’t come much before 2025.

Office spaces are undergoing a transformation and with the rise of hybrid work models, there's a need to rethink the utility of office buildings. Some suggest converting parts of these buildings into residential spaces, while others believe that certain structures might need to be demolished.

Apartments, on the other hand, have seen a surge in supply in some regions. However, the challenge lies in the maturities on bridge loans or apartment debt taken with variable rate loans. Many of these were financed without anticipating significant world changes, leading to potential financial pitfalls. That said, while distressed deals are emerging, they are not (yet) in the volume that one might expect. 

Discover the transformation of office spaces, the intricacies of distressed deals, predictions for market stabilization, and the implications of the A/B loan structure in this conversation with workout specialist, Bert Haboucha at Atlas Capital Advisors.

Whether you're an investor, a seasoned professional, or a sponsor, this episode is designed to equip you with the knowledge to make informed decisions. Don't miss out. Tune in now and stay ahead of the curve in the commercial real estate world. Your next big opportunity might just be a click away.

**

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here. 

Jul 28, 2023

Tune in to hear updates and commentary from Adam Gower Ph.D., GowerCrowd, and David Saxe, Calvera Partners, about the major news stories his past week (week ending July 28, 2023) in the commercial real estate industry:

  • More rate hikes - is this the new normal?
  • CRE distress is increasing with no let up in sight.
  • Why single family home values aren't tanking. 

Stories we cover today:

https://commercialobserver.com/2023/07/cre-loan-distress-up-70-of-largest-metro-areas-in-june/

https://fortune.com/2023/07/24/housing-market-robert-shiller-home-price-prediction-outlook/ 

 

Jul 25, 2023

"It's not the most upbeat environment right now even though there is a lot of capital out there."

As a consequence of ongoing real estate distress and related tightening of capital markets, many sponsors are facing refinancing hurdles, especially if their initial plans lacked sufficient reserves to weather economic storms. Alarmingly, by the end of 2025, we're looking at a maturing commercial mortgage debt of approximately $1.3 trillion. From 2025 to 2027, another almost $1.2 trillion is on the horizon, with half being multifamily.

But there's hope. Focusing on projects with solid foundations can offer a buffer against these market shifts which means banking solely on rent growth and other uncontrollable factors is a gamble.

My guest today on The Real Estate Reality Show is Scott Larson, Managing Principal at Pangea Mortgage Capital. Scott sheds light on the broader economic landscape and capital movements. He is optimistic, emphasizing that while challenges are real, dedicated stakeholders can carve out paths to success.

There will be distress and sell-offs in multifamily presenting opportunities to investors, but Scott does not anticipate not a catastrophic drop in values.

In this sea of challenges, the silver lining is the vast capital reservoir available – but while it remains standing on the sidelines distress property values will continue to decline.  Hear more from seasoned professional lender, Scott Larson in this episode of The Real Estate Reality Show.

**

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here. 

Jul 21, 2023

Tune in to hear updates and commentary from Adam Gower Ph.D., GowerCrowd, and David Saxe, Calvera Partners, about the major news stories his past week (week ending July 21, 2023) in the commercial real estate industry:

  1. latest news on the CrowdStreet/Nightingale story and the lessons learned for investors.
  2. The real agenda behind regulators' continued encouragement to banks that they accommodate struggling borrowers with loan extensions and other means of prolonging their credit.
  3. How eviction and rent moratoriums across California hurt the little guy the most.
Jul 18, 2023
In this episode of The Real Estate Reality Show, I sit down with David Scherer, Co-Founder and Co-CEO at Origin Investments to discuss the company’s rent trend predictive tool, Multilytics.
 
Multilytics is a machine learning game changer for Origin because it gives them accurate (with 95% confidence) down-to-the-building rent trend predictions.
 
Nothing with the same degree of reliability exists in the industry and David shares the story of why Origin built it, how they built it, and how it is used to maximize their investors’ returns while mitigating risk.
 
Here's a quick recap of Multilytics latest predictions:
  • In 2023, multifamily real estate is facing a reckoning.
  • The year will see negative rent growth overall nationwide that will persist into 2024.
  • The Southeast and West will suffer the worst; the Midwest will fare the best.
  • Focus on Colorado Springs and stay away from Vegas!
David discusses why Origin has not acquired any multifamily assets in the last three and a half years, discusses the importance of management on building performance, and shares his views about where the multifamily market is headed over the next 18-months.
 
David has also provided access the latest report from Multilytics to viewers/listeners to this episode. Just go to the bottom of the podcast page for this episode at GowerCrowd.com.
 
Join me in this conversation with David Scherer, one of the multifamily industry’s leading voices, and learn more about how data-analytics are changing the playing field for sponsors.

**

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here. 

Jul 15, 2023

Join me, your host Adam Gower, and Dave Saxe of Calvera Partners as we discuss the week's news  for week ending July 14, 2023.

Main highlights are:

  • Impact of regulators letting banks know they are greenlit to 'extend and pretend'.
  • What's going on with inflation? Is the fight over?!
  • Why it might not be a good idea for a multifamily sponsor to getting into a p*ssing match with The Real Deal.

The Real Deal Article we refer to is here.

Jul 11, 2023
During times of distress in commercial real estate markets, one sector of the industry grows as values tumble: The receivers.
 
My guest today, Mitch Vanneman, Vice President at Hilco Real Estate, is a professional receiver and in today’s discussion he explains what receivers are, what they do, and how they help bridge the gap between lenders and borrowers when deals go bad.
 
Key insights from this episode include:
 
  1. The impact of loan maturities: These are set to cause significant issues for many lenders and borrowers, leading to a slow roll of capitulation.
  2. The rise of distressed assets: The market is bracing for an increase in distressed assets as values continue to decline.
  3. The role of consensual receiverships: More owners are willing to give the asset back to the lender, leading to an increase in consensual receiverships.
  4. The future outlook: By the end of 2023, there will be more distressed assets in the market, and by mid-2024, banks’ special assets officers and receivers nationwide will be a lot busier than they are today.
  5. Asset classes: The discussion also explores the different asset classes that are beginning to show signs of distress.
 
Join us in this episode to gain a deeper understanding of these insights and learn how to navigate the current real estate market landscape through the eyes of my guest tasked, as he is, with finding solutions for assets neither borrowers nor lenders can afford to hold on to.

***

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

Jul 5, 2023
"Higher interest rates beget higher capitalization rates. As cap rates go up, property values necessarily decline."
 
This quote encapsulates the current state of the real estate market and is a consistent theme in my conversation with Orest Mandzy, Managing Editor at Commercial Real Estate Direct. It's a simple yet profound statement that underlines the interconnectedness of interest rates, capitalization rates, and property values. When interest rates rise, it leads to an increase in capitalization rates, which in turn causes a decrease in property values.
 
The big idea here is the cyclical nature of the real estate market and how it's being influenced by external factors such as interest rates and operational costs.
 
The problem at hand is the significant drop in property pricing, particularly in the office sector. Offices are expected to see a 35% decline in value from peak to trough due to increased vacancy rates, cap rate increases, and a drop in Net Operating Income (NOI). This is causing distress for some property owners but also opening up opportunities for others.
 
The solution lies in understanding and navigating these market conditions. Over the next 18 months, there are about $60 billion of loans that mature. More than $22 billion would not be able to refinance at a 7% coupon, the prevailing rate right now. This situation could potentially trigger a resurgence in investment activity and a more stable market environment.
 
Insights in this episode:
  1. The interconnectedness of interest rates, capitalization rates, and property values.
  2. The impact of rising interest rates and operational costs on the real estate market.
  3. The expected 35% decline in office property values from peak to trough.
  4. The opportunities that arise from these market conditions, such as raising mezzanine debt, preferred equity, or selling a joint venture stake.
  5. The potential resurgence in investment activity and a more stable market environment due to the maturing loans.
  6. The impact of these factors is no limited to just the office sector.
Tune in to this week's episode of The Real Estate Reality Show with Orest Mandzy, Managing Editor at Commercial Real Estate Direct, to gain a deeper understanding of these insights and how to navigate the current real estate market.

***

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

Jun 27, 2023
In recent times, the commercial real estate market has seen a surge of new investors and sponsors, many of whom are experiencing the realities of a real estate downturn for the first time. As interest rates rise and operational distress becomes more prevalent, the industry faces significant challenges.
 
Our guest on The Real Estate Reality Show today, Steve Moore, a seasoned expert from Causeway Advisors, LLC, discusses the impact of these changes on both developers and their investors.
 
With the potential for distressed assets in the coming months and many sponsors experiencing capital calls, Moore shares his insights on the importance of understanding the nuances of distressed investing. He emphasizes the need for investors to scrutinize their existing portfolios for potential instances of distress and to be cautious about investing in deals that appear different from the usual package deals they've been used to in the past.
 
Moore also highlights the importance of sponsors having a longer duration of experience, ideally having managed through challenging cycles like the great financial crisis. He expresses caution about sponsors who built their businesses during a high rising tide, as their true capabilities will be tested now that the tide is out.
 
Don't miss this informative episode as we navigate the current real estate landscape and uncover potential opportunities for savvy investors.

***

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

Jun 13, 2023

In the current chilly climate of the commercial real estate market, it's not just about distress but also about understanding the nuances of the market. In this episode, I sit down with Yardi Matrix's Research Editorial Director Paul Fiorilla to discuss the impact of various factors on the market, particularly in the realm of distressed assets.

A brief look at some of the insights you can expect in this week's episode:

  1. Current concerns are largely driven by the rising interest rates and maturing loans, making it challenging for real estate sponsors, especially those who lack experience in managing through difficult times.
  2. This behavior is causing a slowdown in the market, affecting future growth and investment, and leading to distress for some sponsors - but also opening up opportunities for others.
  3. Paul predicts a brighter outlook by 2025, with expected interest rate reductions throughout 2024 that will benefit the market. This could potentially trigger a resurgence in investment activity and a more stable market environment.
  4. Despite the challenges in obtaining equity, there are still opportunities to be found. Paul highlights the potential in distressed assets, such as mid-construction projects that have stalled due to lack of funding, and real estate holdings of executives from failed banks needing liquidity.
  5. There are also opportunities in the form of assets being sold out of bankruptcy to fund cash-flowing shortfalls. These distressed opportunities require a different approach compared to buying marketed properties during an upmarket.
  6. Paul also discusses the nuances of the market, highlighting that the discussion around distress is more complex than a simple good or bad dichotomy. He emphasizes that different commercial property types have different drivers and performance.

This conversation is your roadmap to a better understanding where the commercial real estate market is headed.

Join us in this episode with Paul Fiorilla to get all the insights you need to get you through these tough times in commercial real estate.

***

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

Jun 6, 2023

In the past five years, there has been an unprecedented wave of new commercial real estate syndicators entering the market with a similar wave of accredited investors new to the industry following in their wake.

But as interest rates rise and lending standards tighten, the commercial real estate industry is facing significant challenges and these newcomers to the industry, both sponsors and (passive, accredited) investors are now, for the first time, dealing with the realities of what happens during a real estate downturn.

My guest on The Real Estate Reality Show today, Reid Bennett, National Council Chair of Multifamily, SVN, a seasoned multifamily expert, discusses the impact of these changes on both developers and their investors. 

With prices dropping and many sponsors experiencing capital calls, Bennett shares his insights on the potential for distressed assets in the coming months and the importance of 'LTC', location, timing, and capital in today's market. 

Don't miss this informative episode as we navigate the current real estate landscape and uncover potential opportunities for savvy investors.

***

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

May 30, 2023

“When you have free money, people do stupid things. When you have free money for 11 years, people do really stupid things.” So sayeth billionaire, Stan Druckenmiller. 

Now that interest rates are rising and there is no more free money and combined with tightening lending standards, it is becoming more difficult for developers to secure financing for new projects or to refinance existing loans. 

And with $500+ billion of CRE loans coming to maturity in the months to mid-2024, you’re going to see a lot of distress in the market. 

One solution to this problem is bridge loans, which are short-term loans designed to help developers cover financing gaps. However, these loans can be expensive and may not always provide the best terms for sponsors.  

Plus, in most cases they will wipe out existing limited partner equity. 

Preferred equity is another option, allowing developers to inject additional capital into a project in exchange for a share of the profits – sometimes substantially all of the profits that would have otherwise gone to the sponsor. This can be a more attractive option for sponsors who are unable to secure traditional financing, because they at least retain something out of the deal while continuing to earn (albeit smaller) fees but it will likely result in the dilution (if not complete elimination) of existing limited partners' equity stakes. 

Rescue capital is another form of financing that can help distressed owners. This type of capital typically comes in the form of equity or debt and is used to help stabilize a struggling project or to prevent foreclosure.  Same here though for LP’s – rescue capital can be expensive for GP’s and will probably result in the dilution at best or complete elimination of LPs' equity stakes, at worst. 

My Real Estate Reality Show guest today, Creighton Bildstein, principal at PlattPointe Capital, shares why he believes the commercial real estate market is facing significant challenges due to rising interest rates and tightening lending standards.  

He predicts that opportunities for investors will arise as distressed assets become available for purchase, similar to previous market downturns. 

See why Creighton sees light on the horizon and learn how you can capitalize on the current drawdown in commercial real estate.

This episode of The Real Estate Reality Show at GowerCrowd, is available on YouTube here https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1 and here on the GowerCrowd website https://gowercrowd.com/podcast

***

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

May 23, 2023

Bull markets are driven by greed. Bear markets are driven by fear, and it is peak fear right now.

 

In the latest episode of The Real Estate Reality Show, my guest, Max Sharkansky, principal at Trion Properties discusses why fear is making it difficult to find liquidity or to transact in the current market despite solid fundamentals (in multifamily) such as increasing rents and occupancy.

 

Here are some highlights from Max:

 

  • Driving this fear is the perception that interest rates hikes have a significant impact on CRE values but while rates go up and cap rates typically follow, they do not rise on a one-to-one basis.
  • Fear-driven behavior is creating stagnation in the market, affecting future growth and investment and bringing distress to some owners and sellers – opportunities for others.
  • With the rate hike cycle potentially coming to an end with the first signs of easing inflation, equity is likely to re-enter the market by the end of 2023, possibly triggered by a rate cut, triggering a resurgence in investment activity and a more stable market environment.
  • While obtaining equity has become more challenging, debt has improved due to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's Treasury-based loans allowing for attractive leverage opportunities, which could provide a much-needed boost to investors looking for reliable returns.

There are lucrative distressed opportunities in the market, such as value-add multifamily properties from sellers hit by rising interest rates, and from ground-up developments in need of exits because their permanent financing assumptions did not account for increased cost of debt.

 

Max shares his informed perspective on where we’re heading in the next 12-24 months, and how sponsors can “be greedy when others are fearful.”

This episode of The Real Estate Reality Show at GowerCrowd, is available on YouTube here https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1 and here on the GowerCrowd website https://gowercrowd.com/podcast

***

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

 

May 16, 2023

Commercial real estate sponsors who took out floating rate loans are in trouble.

Rates have over doubled since their lows throwing many loans into technical defaults even if the borrower is keeping them current and their lenders aren’t (yet) marking them to market.

What this means is that many sponsors, especially those new to the real estate game (i.e. who entered during the bull run of the last 11 years), if they have not done so yet, are likely to stop distributions to their investors and will be searching for ways to save their deals from going back to the bank in foreclosure.

In a market downturn, like we have today, there are two types of sponsor: Those that underwrote conservatively, took on low debt, and were happy with lower projected returns because they knew their numbers were robust enough to weather the next, inevitable downturn.  These sponsors will clean up during this downturn, buying distressed assets at significant discounts.

And then there were those who promised sky-high IRR’s just to attract investors, maximized the debt they took on so they could juice returns, used unrealistic rent increase assumptions, and underestimated the real impact of maintenance and tax costs in their proformas (amongst other things).  These sponsors are toast.

And there are also two types of bank: those that are pragmatic and urgently seeking ways to clear their books of these potentially toxic loans before values fall any further and borrowers start going into actual default on loans, and those more confident the market will right itself and so are prepared to extend loans under more favorable terms with borrowers, kicking the can down the road.

With over $500 billion of bank/thrift originated CRE loans coming to maturity deadlines in the 12-months or so to mid-2024, the days of reckoning are upon the commercial real estate industry.

Even sponsors who took on short term, fixed rate loans are going to hit solvency walls and start losing assets to their lenders in foreclosure or find themselves forced to sell at substantial discounts to their (and their investors’) expectations.

If you want to be on the right side of this equation, listen in to my conversation with Cody Charfauros, Principal/MD at Slatt Capital a debt and equity shop.

Cody shares his own personal experience of the impact of dramatically increased debt costs and dives deep into market dynamics, giving you a roadmap for what to expect in the months ahead.

This episode of The Real Estate Reality Show at GowerCrowd, is available on YouTube here https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1 and here on the GowerCrowd website https://gowercrowd.com/podcast

***

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

May 12, 2023

There are three simple rules to success when investing in real estate today, Wait, Pass, and Sprint.

There is a vast portfolio of heavily discounted distressed commercial real estate deals under the surface, hidden from view and moving towards making their debut on the market on heavily discounted terms either through foreclosure, note sale, rescue capital, or litigation.

Inexperienced sponsors who have built large portfolios quickly in the last few years are panicking, figuring out how to save their assets, wondering what to say to their investors, and thankful they charged excessive fees earlier on because they’re going to need them to cover legal fees if they don’t handle investor relations effectively, right now.

Seasoned professionals, however, are sitting pretty.

They have cash and they are waiting, patiently, for the inevitable surge of off-market distressed assets.  

That’s Part One to success in a distressed real estate market: The Wait.

Deals are coming to market but truly professional sponsors are watching as other, less experienced buyers, have been and continue to make unrealistic assumptions to justify their purchases: overly ambitious rent growth projections, aggressive exit cap rates to juice returns, unrealistically short projected deal timelines (to pump up IRR projections).

That’s Part Two: Pass on deals that are being overbid on and acquired by amateurs.

And that brings us to Part Three: The Sprint.

When there is a deal that makes sense and you have the chance to buy a heavily discounted distressed deal, you’re going to need to move with blistering speed on due diligence, underwriting, and capitalization to give a seller, desperate to be relieved of their misery, certainty of close and to win the deal from other aggressive, professional buyers.

Brad Ahrens, President of Concord Development Partners, and I discuss these three aspects of successful distressed deal investing in the latest episode of The Real Estate Reality Show, available on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1 on all podcast channels, and via the (free) GowerCrowd newsletter, here: https://gowercrowd.com/subscribe 

***
In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

 

May 11, 2023

When a real estate deal goes bad as many are doing now, should limited partners have the right of first refusal to invest rescue capital on the same terms as anything the sponsor can bring in to save the deal?

My podcast guest today, attorney Mark Roderick, calls it ‘pre-emptive rights’ and, as you will hear, he explains it can make the best of a bad situation.

But what does that look like in reality?

Here’s the script:

***

Email #1: From Sponsor to Limited Partners (Investors):

Subject Line: We’re stopping distributions and need more money from you

Sorry investors, we screwed up because we [select from the following]

  1. Didn’t manage the property aggressively enough to account for a downturn.
  2. Underwrote debt levels to eternally low interest rates on variable rate terms and now can’t afford the doubling of our debt costs.
  3. Our original loan is maturing, the value of the property has gone down, debt costs have skyrocketed, rent growth is not what we assumed in our proforma, and the bank will only lend us 60% of our original loan amount.
  4. Cap rates are now nearing 6% not the 4% we projected.
  5. Thought this time was different.

In sum, we need you to pony up more equity so we can avoid losing the property to the bank.

***

Email #2: From Sponsor to Rescue Capital fund (pref equity, mezz debt, whatever)

Subject Line: Have we got a deal for you!

Our offering docs allow us to bring in additional capital under any terms. Our bank will only lend us 60% of the original loan amount so we need to shore up the difference. Can you help us.

***

Email #3: From Rescue Fund to Sponsor

Subject Line: We’re in!

Sure. We’ll come in with the 40% you need. We want second position behind the bank (ahead of your existing LPs) and if you miss proforma targets or fail to pay us on time, we’’ll remove you as GP and wipe out your LPs’ equity.

***

Email #4: From Sponsor to Investors

Subject Line: Great news! We’ve found some rescue capital.

You get first right of refusal on the terms we just got to protect your investment.

Terms are that your new capital will come in ahead of your old [or dilute it out completely], and if we screw up again, you get to remove us as GP.

Please accept these terms or someone else gets them.

Oh, and by the way, the Rescue Capital wants all or nothing so we need unanimous agreement from all Investors or we go with the Rescue Capital.

***

Is this an ‘offer’ or a ‘threat’?

Or is the dialogue different somehow?

At the end of the day, does having pre-emptive rights (right of first refusal) really mean anything?

Tune in to hear my conversation with Mark Roderick as we flesh out the pros and cons of pre-emptive rights in a deal gone south.

Stay informed and make better decisions by learning from top experts in the field. Join the discussion in the comments and subscribe to GowerCrowd on Youtube or head to GowerCrowd.com to ensure you’ve got a full picture of the commercial real estate landscape.

Teach yourself how to find distressed investment opportunities by subscribing to the GowerCrowd newsletter at https://gowercrowd.com/subscribe

***

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

May 10, 2023

Have you lost a real estate deal because debt costs skyrocketed and the banks stopped financing your construction project? 

Eric Brody, my guest today has but he has pulled himself up by his bootstraps and now helps others out of similar, sticky situations. 

His new venture, ANAX, provides much-needed capital to distressed real estate projects in various stages of completion. 

He shares his personal story of being at the wrong end of a distressed development deal, the lessons he learned, and how it inspired him to set up a rescue capital venture for other developers in a similar situation. 

We discuss the current state of distress in the marketplace and how developers and investors can navigate these challenges and Eric unwraps how lessons learned from painful experience are the foundations for success going forward. 

Eric doesn’t accept individual investors (his venture is fully funded), but if you’re looking at other rescue funds to invest in, tune in to hear Eric’s war story for context on what rescue capital is and how it thinks and does.

***

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

 

May 9, 2023

In this first guest episode of Series 5 of the GowerCrowd.com podcast, The Real Estate Reality Show, you're going to be meeting with David Saxe. David has lived through prior real estate downturns at major institutional commercial real estate companies.

He discusses how distress is filtering its way into the CRE investing world and we look at the impact of rising interest rates on cap rates, asset values, and how this is leading to an increased flow of distressed opportunities across all asset classes.

David shares his insights into how sophisticated sponsors mitigate risk in their underwriting and in their operations, and he also discusses how less experienced players get complacent during good times in a way that can lead to critical failures when times turn bad.

You'll hear how assumable loans appear to be artificially propping up asset values in some cases, and you'll also learn about the risks and benefits associated with bridge loans.

***

In this brand new podcast series at GowerCrowd, The Real Estate Reality Show, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/gowercrowd?sub_confirmation=1

May 8, 2023

At GowerCrowd, we take a realistic view of commercial real estate investing, providing pragmatic insights for passive investors who are looking for sponsors they can trust and distressed real estate opportunities they can invest in.

You’ll find no quick fixes or easy money ideas here, no sales pitches, big egos or hype.

Real estate investing for passive (accredited) investors is turning messy with vast swathes of loan maturities approaching which is going to send many sponsors into default causing their investors to lose capital.

While this is nothing to be celebrated, it will also bring in a period of wealth transfer and opportunistic investments.

We’re here to guide you by looking at the harsh reality of real estate investing, examining the risks and the rewards in conversations with some of the world’s top experts so you can make informed decisions.

You’ll learn how to build your wealth while protecting your capital investing as a limited partner in commercial real estate investments, even and especially during an economic downturn.

Each week we add new episodes that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in commercial real estate investing with a focus on discounted distressed real estate and the associated market dynamics.

We provide interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's real estate industry, how the economy impacts returns, how to access and invest in distressed real estate deals, and how to protect your capital by mitigating downside risks.

There’s no doubt that it is a very challenging time right now for the average investor.

With the impact of COVID still being felt and the era of record low interest rates behind us, commercial real estate is experiencing severe headwinds.

This creates financial distress for many CRE owners who did not include contingencies in their original business plans and who now face dramatically increased debt costs, increased construction and maintenance costs due to inflation, and reduced revenues from rents as the economy slows down.

  • Is the commercial real estate world on the cusp of a major correction?
  • Is it 2007 or 1989 all over again?
  • Will passive investors (limited partners) who have invested in syndications (through crowdfunding or otherwise) see losses they had not predicted? 
  • How can you access discounted real estate opportunities this time around that were only available to a select few during prior downturns?

Let us help you prepare your real estate portfolio no matter what the future holds, whether it be business as usual for real estate investors or a period of wealth transfer where those less prudent during the good times, lose their assets to those who have sat on the sidelines, patiently waiting for a correction.

Be among the first to know of discounted investment opportunities as the market cycle plays out by subscribing to the GowerCrowd newsletter here.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here. ⁠⁠⁠ 

Follow me on Twitter.

Join the conversation on LinkedIn here.

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